4:03 PM / Kreasikan Group / Business,
"The conclusion that considering the health of third-country economic fundamentals," said Neumann as reported by CNBC, Wednesday, January 4, 2017.
Prediction is considering the impact of monetary policy tightening US Central Bank (Federal Reserve / Fed) is going to raise rates three times this year. The negative sentiment also because of predictions of slowing global trade as a result of protectionist policies campaigned by US President-elect, Donald Trump. According to Neumann, Indonesia and India and Thailand have been anticipating these conditions.
"Countries that depend on exports such as Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and even China, it seems difficult to recover this year," he said.
Neumann suggested that investors see the countries whose economy is driven by domestic factors such as India and Indonesia. Because both of these countries have relatively low debt levels, a credit positive, and strong domestic consumption. Although HSBC maintains a cautious outlook on the economic outlook for Asia as a whole, but Indonesia, India, and Thailand was rated as the country with the brightest prospects in the region.
Kelvin Tay, Regional Investment Director for the Asia Pacific region of the south at UBS, said the performance of Thailand SET stock index jumped 20 percent and is the second best performing index in Asia last year. The positive stock market performance White Elephant driven by the recovery in world oil prices. For as much as 35 percent of shares listed on the stock exchange of the country is exposed to rising oil prices.
Senior Economist of Mizuho Bank, Vishnu Varathan, adding investors relieved that the succession process goes well the Kingdom of Thailand. In October, there are concerns about the conflict following the death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej and the period of mourning will be colored by the power struggles that have an impact on the economy and politics.
While the exchange rate Indonesia and India were weakened enough in the past since 2013 when the Fed first signaled it would raise interest rates, but now the situation is relatively stable. The stable exchange rate of the rupiah and the rupee although now the Fed to tighten monetary policy. "I expect the rupiah and the rupee will not experience such turmoil in 2013 and then," said Neumann.
Tax reform policies undertaken by Indonesia and India become a favorite among investors. Indonesian President Joko Widodo, launched a tax amnesty program in July last year that has managed to bring in revenues from ransom of Rp 103 trillion at the end of December 2016. Additional reception will help the government to realize the infrastructure development program.
No different, the Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi who started demonetisasi program in November 2016. With this program, Modi aims to promote digital payment and raise the state treasury.
OCBC economist, Wellian Wiranto, also estimates that Indonesia's capital market will have an upward trend. "Domestic consumption Indonesia become an important indicator to anticipate external factors. In addition, the Indonesian government has succeeded in maintaining the stability of the rupiah exchange rate without having to use measures to make the market worried, "he said.